Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin Accumulation Uptrend Could Create 2013-Style BTC Price ‘Double Pump’


Bitcoin’s recent run-down (B T cGlasnod’s data shows that while prices ranged from about $ 65,000 to $ 30,000, it did not obligate long-term holders to sell.

As BTC / USD bids were falling, the on-chain analytics platform revealed an increase in bitcoin reserves kept in the wallet with little to no out-of-pocket output.

Meanwhile, the data also shows that bitcoin is gathering competition among miners – entities producing and supplying newly created cryptocurrencies for retail markets. As a result, active BTC supply has begun to decline in recent seasons.

New bitcoin supply was squeezed by miners and long-term holders. Source: GlassNode

During the BTC / USD rate drop, short-term bitcoin holders – entities that hold major cryptocurrencies for less than a week – were the biggest sellers. Glasnode data suggested That those entering the new market terrorize BTC May slowdown, During a month BTC lost 38% from its all-time high price.

bitcoin price fluctuations Meanwhile short-term traders continue to exploit with up / down moves in double-digit percentages. The 24-hour Bitcoin Volatility Index on TradingView closed around 19.70 on May 20 and bottomed at 1.90 on April 2 – an increase of 936% during that period, with BTC/USD hitting an all-time high near $65,000 Reached and subsided. To reach $ 30,000.

Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index. Source: TradingView.com

High price fluctuations served as an indication that investors remained fearful or uncertain about the next market bias of bitcoin. The chart above showed intraday candles consistently higher volatility – closing 34% lower than the previous session on 30 May. But overall, the trend appeared to be downward.

Except there is a catch

Glasnod estimated that long-term holders realize their gains or losses at some point (PNL). Analytics portal Cited A proprietary metric that examines the tiring levels of long-term holders – the point at which their ability to hold BTC is broken, and which drives them to realize their profit or loss in the market.

The net unrealized gain / loss of unit-adjusted long-term holders of bitcoin. Source: Glassnode

“The current degree of pure unrealized PNL held by LTH tests the 0.75 level, which has been the make or break level between previous bull and bear cycles,” Glasnod analysts wrote.

Only the 2013 ‘double pump’ scenario saw an improvement in this metric. Should LTH continue to see its paper profit decline, it could also create a new source of overhead supply. On the other hand, high prices and declining supply shortages will start to resemble the ‘double pump’ scenario from 2013 onwards.

Bitcoin macroeconomic bullish

The only factor separating the current bitcoin holding scenario from the previous one is the trillion-dollar deficit of the United States. The world’s largest economy has returned to its highest debt-to-GDP ratio since World War II. And on Friday, President Joe Biden Announced Plan to spend another $ 6 trillion for 2022.

Overall, the plan will increase government spending to $ 8.2 trillion per year by 2031. This would mean an annual fiscal deficit of over $ 1.3T and over $ 1.8T in 2022.

One of the biggest fears in the market is that an increase in government spending will lead to a dramatic increase in inflation.

Demand for bitcoin has increased among institutional investors for the anti-inflation narrative. Proponents noted that the supply could only hold 21 million BTC tokens, making it an ideal store of value Infinitely printable US dollars.

Corporates including Tesla, Square, MicroStrategy and Ruffer Investments have added bitcoin to their balance sheets as an alternative to cash. Billionaire investors including Stan Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones and Mike Novogratz Have allotted A large part of their investment portfolio is in bitcoin.

Fundamentals continue to provide bitcoin with a rapid backstop.

“Bitcoin was built for the moment,” said Dan Held, director of development marketing at Kraken. “We are by far the largest money printing operation in human history, and bitcoin is the only way.”